Rob Neyer at ESPN wrote a great piece about the errency of human memory and the statistical processes we can use to correct them, all cleverly disguised as a sports story. You see, there is a story, urban legend almost, about late catcher Thurman Munson. When Munson heard he was 2 assists between Hall of Fame Carlton Fisk ( most known for his time on the Red Sox, though I remember his White Sox tenure), he decided to do something about it. He purposefully dropped several third strikes, and threw to first, utilizing the little known dropped third strike rule, and gaining an assist for himself. He did this three times, earning himself three assists, passing Fisk. Of course, this is all bunk.

The author researched several versions of the story, tracing it all the way to Marty Appel, the reporter who brought the assist statistic to Munson's attention. Appel describes the detail of the event in flashbulb detail, which as research shows, is no more reliable than any other memory, which is not at all. Neyer went through exhaustive efforts to search through the statistical record to track down this story. He permutes all of the variables, to count for possible misrememberings, but in the end, concludes that this story is entirely faulty. Skepticism in sports, amazing!

Dropping the APM bomb on Computers

Brad (last name unknown), a College Football analyst on ESPN radio's the Sports Bash was discussing Hawaii's chance of being in the top 12 of the BCS standings. He said, "I don't think the voters in the polls are disrespecting Hawaii, if anything it's the computer polls that are disrespecting them, if a computer can disrespect a team".

No Brad, a computer can't disrespect someone. That computer is actually a computer model which was designed by a person, probably a statistician, to describe how good teams are. This anthropomorphism* is troubling, because it reveals a complete misunderstanding of what is going on. There aren't some evil computers out to get Hawaii. A statistician came up with a model which calculated that teams who have lost games against good opponents are better than teams which consistently beat poor opponents.

There are certainly flaws with computer models. Computers may not take into account all the factors that voters can, but they are able to ignore factors that human voters take into account, like the "feel good" story of a small conference team Hawaii. These stories, however intriguing they are, are correctly ignored by computers, an objective ranking source.

Computers aren't that difficult to understand. All you have to do is ask, and any of us CS majors will wax eloquently, something CS majors usually aren't that good at. Please, know what you're talking about before going on national radio and spouting nonsense.


*: Dropping the APM bomb refers to gratuitous use of the word anthropomorphic, especially to make yourself or your writings sound smarter. I employed this technique on a college paper, but it didn't seem to help my grade.

Terry Schiavo Redux

After the Bears/Broncos game ended (w00t!), I didn't bother to change the channel until 60 minutes came on. Anderson Cooper started with "Two years ago, Terry Schiavo sparked a nationwide debate...", at which point I turned off the tv. No she didn't! There was no debate. Every agreed, what in God's name is the Congress doing involved in this? This, to me, was one of the major reasons the Democrats took power, everyone was sick of the Big Government Republicans. The problem with news coverage today is not only do they beat on dead horses, but they periodically dig them up to beat again!

Tags

I've started to become enamored with whole tags thing, so I'm going to make a list of tags for myself to keep track of.

INFO : general information about the blog
MUSIC, MOVIES, TV : Shows/bands that I like, dislike, or otherwise have some sort of feeling about.
COMEDY : Either jokes or the entirely unfunny discussion on why things are funny. Also, fawning about Del Close.
SPORTS : I typically follow MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAFL, NCAABB, and a scattering of other stuff.
SCIENCE : I'm fascinated by how things work, how scientists figure out that work, and why people sometimes don't believe it.
BOOKS : I read lots of books, and before now I've just kind of put them down. Hopefully I can use this blog to track what I read and how I feel about it.
WORDS : Words are fun. See Wordie . I think I will occasionally post about a word that I like.

As time goes by I will probably add, remove, and change these categories around.